A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation
Identifieur interne : 000384 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000383; suivant : 000385A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation
Auteurs : Tuen Wai Ng [République populaire de Chine] ; Gabriel Turinici [France] ; Antoine Danchin [France]Source :
- BMC Infectious Diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2003.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Chine, Hong Kong, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Virus du SRAS.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine, Hong Kong.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China, Hong Kong.
- epidemiology : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Biological, SARS Virus.
Abstract
An epidemic of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caused by a new coronavirus has spread from the Guangdong province to the rest of China and to the world, with a puzzling contagion behavior. It is important both for predicting the future of the present outbreak and for implementing effective prophylactic measures, to identify the causes of this behavior.
In this report, we show first that the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model cannot account for the patterns observed in various regions where the disease spread. We develop a model involving two superimposed epidemics to study the recent spread of the SARS in Hong Kong and in the region. We explore the situation where these epidemics may be caused either by a virus and one or several mutants that changed its tropism, or by two unrelated viruses. This has important consequences for the future: the innocuous epidemic might still be there and generate, from time to time, variants that would have properties similar to those of SARS.
We find that, in order to reconcile the existing data and the spread of the disease, it is convenient to suggest that a first milder outbreak protected against the SARS. Regions that had not seen the first epidemic, or that were affected simultaneously with the SARS suffered much more, with a very high percentage of persons affected. We also find regions where the data appear to be inconsistent, suggesting that they are incomplete or do not reflect an appropriate identification of SARS patients. Finally, we could, within the framework of the model, fix limits to the future development of the epidemic, allowing us to identify landmarks that may be useful to set up a monitoring system to follow the evolution of the epidemic. The model also suggests that there might exist a SARS precursor in a large reservoir, prompting for implementation of precautionary measures when the weather cools down.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-3-19) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-3-19
PubMed: 12964944
PubMed Central: 222908
Affiliations:
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PMC:222908Le document en format XML
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xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BMC Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1471-2334</idno><imprint><date when="2003">2003</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Hong Kong (epidemiology)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>SARS Virus</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Hong Kong (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (épidémiologie)</term><term>Virus du SRAS</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term><term>Hong Kong</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine</term><term>Hong Kong</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>SARS Virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Virus du SRAS</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term><term>Hong Kong</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>An epidemic of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caused by a new coronavirus has spread from the Guangdong province to the rest of China and to the world, with a puzzling contagion behavior. It is important both for predicting the future of the present outbreak and for implementing effective prophylactic measures, to identify the causes of this behavior.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>In this report, we show first that the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model cannot account for the patterns observed in various regions where the disease spread. We develop a model involving two superimposed epidemics to study the recent spread of the SARS in Hong Kong and in the region. We explore the situation where these epidemics may be caused either by a virus and one or several mutants that changed its tropism, or by two unrelated viruses. This has important consequences for the future: the innocuous epidemic might still be there and generate, from time to time, variants that would have properties similar to those of SARS.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>We find that, in order to reconcile the existing data and the spread of the disease, it is convenient to suggest that a first milder outbreak protected against the SARS. Regions that had not seen the first epidemic, or that were affected simultaneously with the SARS suffered much more, with a very high percentage of persons affected. We also find regions where the data appear to be inconsistent, suggesting that they are incomplete or do not reflect an appropriate identification of SARS patients. Finally, we could, within the framework of the model, fix limits to the future development of the epidemic, allowing us to identify landmarks that may be useful to set up a monitoring system to follow the evolution of the epidemic. The model also suggests that there might exist a SARS precursor in a large reservoir, prompting for implementation of precautionary measures when the weather cools down.</p></sec><sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title><p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-3-19) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rasschaert, D" uniqKey="Rasschaert D">D Rasschaert</name></author><author><name sortKey="Duarte, M" uniqKey="Duarte M">M Duarte</name></author><author><name sortKey="Laude, H" uniqKey="Laude H">H Laude</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Compton, Sr" uniqKey="Compton S">SR Compton</name></author><author><name sortKey="Barthold, Sw" uniqKey="Barthold S">SW Barthold</name></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Al" uniqKey="Smith A">AL Smith</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Haijema, Bj" uniqKey="Haijema B">BJ Haijema</name></author><author><name sortKey="Volders, H" uniqKey="Volders H">H Volders</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rottier, Pj" uniqKey="Rottier P">PJ Rottier</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Enjuanes, L" uniqKey="Enjuanes L">L Enjuanes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sanchez, C" uniqKey="Sanchez C">C Sanchez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gebauer, F" uniqKey="Gebauer F">F Gebauer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mendez, A" uniqKey="Mendez A">A Mendez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dopazo, J" uniqKey="Dopazo J">J Dopazo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ballesteros, Ml" uniqKey="Ballesteros M">ML Ballesteros</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ballesteros, Ml" uniqKey="Ballesteros M">ML Ballesteros</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sanchez, Cm" uniqKey="Sanchez C">CM Sanchez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Martin Caballero, J" uniqKey="Martin Caballero J">J Martin-Caballero</name></author><author><name sortKey="Enjuanes, L" uniqKey="Enjuanes L">L Enjuanes</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ballesteros, Ml" uniqKey="Ballesteros M">ML Ballesteros</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sanchez, Cm" uniqKey="Sanchez C">CM Sanchez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Enjuanes, L" uniqKey="Enjuanes L">L Enjuanes</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, R" uniqKey="Anderson R">R Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="May, R" uniqKey="May R">R May</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Murray, Jd" uniqKey="Murray J">JD Murray</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bailey, Njt" uniqKey="Bailey N">NJT Bailey</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Garwes, Dj" uniqKey="Garwes D">DJ Garwes</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brauer, F" uniqKey="Brauer F">F Brauer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Castillo Chavez, C" uniqKey="Castillo Chavez C">C Castillo-Chavez</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, H" uniqKey="Anderson H">H Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Britton, T" uniqKey="Britton T">T Britton</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Diekmann, O" uniqKey="Diekmann O">O Diekmann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, J" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">J Heesterbeek</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fouchier, Ra" uniqKey="Fouchier R">RA Fouchier</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kuiken, T" uniqKey="Kuiken T">T Kuiken</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schutten, M" uniqKey="Schutten M">M Schutten</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Amerongen, G" uniqKey="Van Amerongen G">G Van Amerongen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Doornum, Gj" uniqKey="Van Doornum G">GJ Van Doornum</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Den Hoogen, Bg" uniqKey="Van Den Hoogen B">BG Van Den Hoogen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Peiris, M" uniqKey="Peiris M">M Peiris</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lim, W" uniqKey="Lim W">W Lim</name></author><author><name sortKey="Stohr, K" uniqKey="Stohr K">K Stohr</name></author><author><name sortKey="Osterhaus, Ad" uniqKey="Osterhaus A">AD Osterhaus</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Laude, H" uniqKey="Laude H">H Laude </name></author><author><name sortKey="Rasschaert, D" uniqKey="Rasschaert D">D Rasschaert</name></author><author><name sortKey="Delmas, B" uniqKey="Delmas B">B Delmas </name></author><author><name sortKey="Eleouet, J F" uniqKey="Eleouet J">J-F Eleouët</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Saif, Lj" uniqKey="Saif L">LJ Saif</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Cott, Jl" uniqKey="Van Cott J">JL van Cott</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brim, Ta" uniqKey="Brim T">TA Brim</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hethcote, Hw" uniqKey="Hethcote H">HW Hethcote</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghani, Ac" uniqKey="Ghani A">AC Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gm" uniqKey="Leung G">GM Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, Aj" uniqKey="Hedley A">AJ Hedley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Abu Raddad, Lj" uniqKey="Abu Raddad L">LJ Abu-Raddad</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, Lm" uniqKey="Ho L">LM Ho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Thach, Tq" uniqKey="Thach T">TQ Thach</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chau, P" uniqKey="Chau P">P Chau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chan, Kp" uniqKey="Chan K">KP Chan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lam, Th" uniqKey="Lam T">TH Lam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tse, Ly" uniqKey="Tse L">LY Tse</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tsang, T" uniqKey="Tsang T">T Tsang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Sh" uniqKey="Liu S">SH Liu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kong, Jh" uniqKey="Kong J">JH Kong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lau, Em" uniqKey="Lau E">EM Lau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ng, Tuen Wai" sort="Ng, Tuen Wai" uniqKey="Ng T" first="Tuen Wai" last="Ng">Tuen Wai Ng</name></noRegion></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Turinici, Gabriel" sort="Turinici, Gabriel" uniqKey="Turinici G" first="Gabriel" last="Turinici">Gabriel Turinici</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Danchin, Antoine" sort="Danchin, Antoine" uniqKey="Danchin A" first="Antoine" last="Danchin">Antoine Danchin</name><name sortKey="Turinici, Gabriel" sort="Turinici, Gabriel" uniqKey="Turinici G" first="Gabriel" last="Turinici">Gabriel Turinici</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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